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  • Interesting - sounds about right to me. Given the speed with which things are opening up, I think there's every chance a crowd of some sort will be allowed in September.

  • Hopefully we don't regress as Germany appear to be doing by relaxing the lockdown to soon @Last_Quarter.

  • germany has 2 outbreaks which are large but have not regressed. The R number is not a very good guide when cases are very low as they are in Germany.

  • Have you told Boris the R number is not a good guide @emu80. I am sure he would be grateful to know his scientific experts are giving him crap advice.

  • When is Ruth coming back @emu80?

  • The Sept 12 date sounds quite logical based on that report.

    Given today’s announcements I’d hope some sort of would be possible at that point.

  • Once the pubs are open all bets are off. Spike or no spike we won't be going back into lock-down again. It'll be a case of buy a mask and use good old British common sense and if you don't it's your own fault...

  • Hard to argue with that @Wendoverman.
    At least I think you’re being serious.

  • All bets were off after Cummings totally undermined the rules.

    All manner of large scale meetings happened after that, and so far, touch wood we still seem to be heading the right stay still - which is very positive.

  • I'd just like to say that the reopening of pubs etc is absolutely batshit insane. We had almost the same number of new deaths yesterday (171) than on the day we went into lockdown (183), the government haven't published how many people are being tested for over ten days now despite every regional NHS collecting this information diligently, none of the measures that are supposed to be in place before easing lockdown are in place, we spunked Β£12m of tax payer money to a friend of Matt Hancock on an app that doesn't work (that everyone who works in tech said wouldn't work from the start), they're lying about having been in contact with Apple, they're lying about no other country having a working contact tracing app despite that it's pretty easy to google and find Germany, France, Italy, South Korea and many others have had one for weeks because they listened to Apple and Google in the first place, and now pubs are now expected to create their own GDPR compliant personal data collection system within the next ten days with no help or guidance from the government on how to do so.

    We've simply decided that money is more important than life.

  • @drcongo said:
    I'd just like to say that the reopening of pubs etc is absolutely batshit insane. We had almost the same number of new deaths yesterday (171) than on the day we went into lockdown (183), the government haven't published how many people are being tested for over ten days now despite every regional NHS collecting this information diligently, none of the measures that are supposed to be in place before easing lockdown are in place, we spunked Β£12m of tax payer money to a friend of Matt Hancock on an app that doesn't work (that everyone who works in tech said wouldn't work from the start), they're lying about having been in contact with Apple, they're lying about no other country having a working contact tracing app despite that it's pretty easy to google and find Germany, France, Italy, South Korea and many others have had one for weeks because they listened to Apple and Google in the first place, and now pubs are now expected to create their own GDPR compliant personal data collection system within the next ten days with no help or guidance from the government on how to do so.

    We've simply decided that money is more important than life.

    Spot on. Absolutely fucking mental incompetency from people who couldn't run a bath, let alone the country.

  • @drcongo said:
    we spunked Β£12m of tax payer money to a friend of Matt Hancock on an app that doesn't work

    Balderdash - you'll be telling me next the Tories gave a Β£14 million ferry contract to a company with no ferries.

  • So will you be in the pub next weekend @drcongo ?

    I'm with you on everything you've said. Didn't know Hancock was linked to the app fiasco. I had read it was a Cummings contact.

    The one mitigating factor I can see when comparing now and mid March is the levels of new cases. There doesn't appear to be the same spike post Durdle Door/BLM protests that were assumed after Cheltenham races or that Liverpool match.

    At some point there has to be a tipping point from virus risk to economic risk. It does feel way too soon though and I won't be doing anything different for a few weeks yet.

  • @micra said:
    Hard to argue with that @Wendoverman.
    At least I think you’re being serious.

    As a confirmed hectorist I am always serious @micra . :smiley:

  • @drcongo they have got Virus done and now the same esteemed leadership team are primed to go to it and get Brexit done. (At least, It's much easier to blame a Frenchy than a virus...)

  • @Right_in_the_Middle said:
    So will you be in the pub next weekend @drcongo ?

    Definitely not. I actually haven't drunk alcohol in 3 months so booze isn't something I'm desperate for, though I do miss the social side of the pub a little.

    The one mitigating factor I can see when comparing now and mid March is the levels of new cases. There doesn't appear to be the same spike post Durdle Door/BLM protests that were assumed after Cheltenham races or that Liverpool match.

    The worry here though is that the government has stopped reporting actual numbers for people tested, even though they definitely know the actual numbers. So why would they stop reporting them? The only reason I can think of is that it's because we've deliberately slowed testing down so much there would be a public outcry. This is exactly what Trump admitted to doing the other day, and the push to re-open over there has seen record spikes in multiple states.

    At some point there has to be a tipping point from virus risk to economic risk. It does feel way too soon though and I won't be doing anything different for a few weeks yet.

    I sort of agree with you here, especially on not changing one's own routines. However the idea that at some point the economy has to take precedence over keeping people alive (if that's what you meant, I'm sure it's what the government are thinking) makes my skin crawl. My take would be that if the economy isn't surviving this, then change the economy before allowing people to die to keep pubs open. I find it very telling to look at the order that the government decides things should re-open as to who they're willing to sacrifice and who they want to support in getting their revenue streams back open. Particularly distasteful is Johnson posing with that swivel eyed lunatic who owns Weatherspoons, a man who immediately laid off as many staff as possible as soon as this happened with no option to furlough.

  • Cummings has probably ordered Boris to open pubs. I fully agree with @drcongo that it is crass stupidity and will come back to bite Boris's butt. Obviously I hope I am wrong but I will certainly not be going anywhere near a pub or restaurant.

  • @drcongo said:

    However the idea that at some point the economy has to take precedence over keeping people alive (if that's what you meant, I'm sure it's what the government are thinking) makes my skin crawl.

    That's exactly what I am saying. People are starting to die due to the impact of the lockdown rather than the virus itself. Mental health, poverty and lack of access to medical facilities and treatments all cause problems.
    I'm not sure we've reachef that tipping point yet but the Goverment have bowed to pressure and done it.
    Luckily, as proven at Durdle Door, we have enough people in the population who think they have super powers and will test this theory without any thought. My thought is to stay safely out of the way for a few more weeks yet whilst advanced party see ifa second wave will hit.

  • It's absolutely mental. We're still having more deaths a day than plenty of countries had in total and they're trying to say it's a success

    They should be in the dock

  • If the numbers are bad stop reporting them. If the number of positive cases are high stop testing them. Stop having press conferences during which very few jolly bufton tufton questions requiring a jokey answer are asked. Have an inquiry into why people are dying for a couple of years. Get Bozzer behind a bar with Mr Sackemall Brexitspoon pulling pints to get the oiks back spending...

  • @Right_in_the_Middle said:
    That's exactly what I am saying. People are starting to die due to the impact of the lockdown rather than the virus itself. Mental health, poverty and lack of access to medical facilities and treatments all cause problems.

    Ahhh, got you. Thanks.

  • It’s all rather weird. You have about 70% of people up here behaving as if it’s all over with pretty much no thought given to social distancing and 20% of people wandering around in surgical masks seemingly terrified of coming within 5 metres of anyone.

    Hardly surprising though with the mixed messages the government have managed to convey virtually throughout.

    But the pubs are open (or will be soon) so we can all get pissed and toast our glorious leader for not, pretty much despite his best efforts, managing to wipe out most of the country.

    Still roll on next winter when he’ll have another go with the added bonus of cheap chemical food from his friends over in the USA to choke on.

  • @Right_in_the_Middle said:

    @drcongo said:

    However the idea that at some point the economy has to take precedence over keeping people alive (if that's what you meant, I'm sure it's what the government are thinking) makes my skin crawl.

    That's exactly what I am saying. People are starting to die due to the impact of the lockdown rather than the virus itself. Mental health, poverty and lack of access to medical facilities and treatments all cause problems.
    I'm not sure we've reachef that tipping point yet but the Goverment have bowed to pressure and done it.
    Luckily, as proven at Durdle Door, we have enough people in the population who think they have super powers and will test this theory without any thought. My thought is to stay safely out of the way for a few more weeks yet whilst advanced party see ifa second wave will hit.

    An elephant in the room for the economic argument is that recessions improve life expectancy, although medical procedures being cancelled in a pandemic is a whole different issue
    , but an unavoidable one unless we get the circulation of cases down and traceable.

    The lack of going into lockdown early enough cost us financially as well as physically, and leaving too early is likely to have the same effect (although hopefully the weather will delay this at least).

  • I'm signed off to work at home until the end of August...will I be back in then I asks? The reply...if there is another spike in Autumn and it also hits the normal flu season, you might be at home until Christmas!

  • Might give a beer garden a go but agree with all of the above, seen some particularly merky stuff around the horseracing being late to close, first to open and people close to it being rather well connected, just adds to the feeling it's not the science leading.
    I'll bite @Username what's the reasoning around your point on recessions? Health benefits of being at home? Less stress and pollution? Just that poverty is normally a huge factor.

  • @Wendoverman said:
    I'm signed off to work at home until the end of August...will I be back in then I asks? The reply...if there is another spike in Autumn and it also hits the normal flu season, you might be at home until Christmas!

    Similar here brother, but end July minimum. That'd be 4 months off! 1/3 of the year!

    The real problem is if there was another spike and shut down, the gov have already said there will be no funding of people that time round. That doesn't bear thinking about.

  • @StrongestTeam said:
    Might give a beer garden a go but agree with all of the above, seen some particularly merky stuff around the horseracing being late to close, first to open and people close to it being rather well connected, just adds to the feeling it's not the science leading.
    I'll bite @Username what's the reasoning around your point on recessions? Health benefits of being at home? Less stress and pollution? Just that poverty is normally a huge factor.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224848225_The_Last_Recession_Was_Good_for_Life_Expectancy

    I should have prefaced my previous message with "in developed countries with at least basic welfare"

    You had the crux of it with being at home. Old people see their families more during recession, and this has a larger effect than the increases in other things (suicide is one of the biggest increases %wise, but from a low base number).

    I'm in no way advocating it, but I found it interesting, and "recession will kill more" is a line that's often trotted out by people who can't wait for a haircut

  • @Malone said:

    The real problem is if there was another spike and shut down, the gov have already said there will be no funding of people that time round. That doesn't bear thinking about.

    There will be no future lock down. There's no political will and economy would be buggered if we try to shut down again after the restart...it will be a all hands to the pump British spirit common sense get out there and yet johnny virus do its worse and if you die it's your own fault for not assessing the dangers and following the very clear and precise guidelines and figures. Also after all this time majority would cross their fingers and go to work. Basically the policies that would have been undertaken by PM Cummings had King Boz not laughed about and failed to follow advice only to embarrassingly come down with it. Bad optics. They really are envious of Brazil (leadership could care less how many of their huge population die) and Russia (No virus here. Not at all. No. Report that there is and see what happens to you, comrade.) I fully recognise how lucky I am work-wise compared to some.

  • @Wendoverman , misread your earlier post - you're actually working, whereas I'm totally off on furlough - so not that similar at all! Whoops!
    I need to get back to work at all before there's any talk of where :)

    Right on the second lock down I think. The British public have shown their patience towards a lockdown has totally expired, and as per a previous post Cummings totally killed any respect people had for the rules.

    The whole situation just seems to have been dreadfully dealt with right from the start. From the sheepish "we advise you to..." that should have been "we're telling you", to seemingly bungling almost every step of the way.

    The only thing they did well was the furlough and support payments. But i'm sure there'sa cynical angle as a counter to those too.

  • It will be interesting to see how long they go on releasing specific figures for hospitalisation and deaths. My guess would be that it will continue during the summer when it’s probable that it will stay fairly steady and relatively low, but come autumn/winter when it will probably start to rise significantly I wouldn’t be surprised to see it disappearing to be replaced by an: β€œoh, 20,000 people more than usual died seem to have died last winter. Must have been that 2-day cold spell in February.”

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