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Accrington beat Doncaster

And are surely safe

Come on Luton. There, I said it. God I feel dirty

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Comments

  • Jesus Christ Luton, you had one job!!!!!

  • Oh Marek Stech! Could be a very costly fumble for us.

  • β€œThat goal changes nothing”

  • edited April 23

    They're still 4 points behind us though, so bearing in mind Plymouth play Scunthorpe last day, a draw will keep us up. (Plymouth and Scunthorpe having miles worse goal diffo)

    Pretty much the same as if Wimbledon had lost.

  • At the end of the day, other than perhaps motivating Wimbledon, that result doesn't make much difference. Instead of being 5 points behind us they're now 4 with massively worse goal difference, so still need to win both of their last games.

  • So a point on Saturday and we're mathematically safe then

    Still think 50's enough anyway

  • So, are we saying 1 point from 2 games is enough to keep us up ?

  • As I understand it, not necessarily @Stewie63

    If we draw with Wimbledon, we're fine. However if we lose against them, and then drew against Fleetwood, that may not necessarily be enough, as Wimbledon could reach 52 points.

    That's the difference with that equaliser tonight. If Luton had won, a draw would've been enough for us whichever game it came in.

  • It certainly changes things if we lose on Saturday. Could be that we'll need to win our last game. Let's hope results go our way if we do lose.

  • Shame about the Accrington result because they play Plymouth on Saturday, who now look a better bet for points, but you never know.

    I think the goal at the end for Wimbledon doesn't matter. The situation doesn't change from when they were losing. We still only need one point on Saturday against them to make ourselves safe.

    It would be funny if Luton didn't go up, although their last two games are Burton away and then the pnl visit Kenilworth Road and I read it that they now need 3 points to make certain.

  • I'm not so sure, potentially that goal could be huge. It doesn't really change anything in terms of Saturday, but a defeat (and we have a terrible record against Wimbledon) and we could well be needing to beat Fleetwood to stay up.

  • Yep, the Accy victory was a disappointment. Several results still all have to go a particular way to condemn us to the drop, though. Odds still well in our favour at this stage.

  • I see my mistake reading the postings made by @Last_Quarter and @Wycombe85 while I was writing and thinking about Luton not being promoted.

    I never did want to think about losing on Saturday.

  • edited April 23

    If I've done my maths correctly (dubious) it is possible, although unlikely, that the table could finish with 6 teams all on 53 points.

    Bradford 37 (2 defeats)
    Walsall 43 (2 defeats)
    Scunthorpe 49 (1 win)
    Wimbledon 52 (2 wins)
    Plymouth 53 (2 wins)
    Southend 53 (2 wins)
    Wycombe 53 (1 win)
    Shrewsbury 53 (1 win)
    Bristol Rovers 53 (1 win)
    Gillingham 53 (1 draw)

  • As I understand it, and correct me if I’m wrong, a point on Saturday and we’re safe
    Lose on Saturday as we could still be safe going into the las day as long as Plymouth and Scunthorpe both lose given our superior goal difference.

  • If we lose we need Plymouth to lose and Scunthorpe fail to win. Or it goes to the last game.

  • Wimbledon and Scunthorpe can only get a maximum of 52 now. 53 is definitely safe.

  • edited April 23

    For us to go down on 51 with the point coming on the last day (assuming all other results are β€˜worst case’ for us), the Southend v Rochdale game on Sat becomes very interesting. If Rochdale win, 51 would be enough. If it’s a draw, Southend would need to beat Sunderland on the final day, and if Southend win on Sat, Rochdale would need to avoid defeat at Charlton on the final day AND Southend would need to do the same at home to Sunderland.

  • @Chris, you're right. I shouldn't try to do mental arithmetic whilst flipping between fixtures and table on my phone.
    It would have been a fun way to end the season though!

  • Who else can see us dipping below the line for the first time at 19.30 (5th minute of injury time) on the last day?

    My feeling after the game Monday that 50 points was enough has gone now.

  • @bookertease said:
    Who else can see us dipping below the line for the first time at 19.30 (5th minute of injury time) on the last day?

    My feeling after the game Monday that 50 points was enough has gone now.

    The thing to remember might be that with 2 wins out of 3 we are what passes for a form team in current company. We would have to lose both or only get maybe one point from two games and be very unlucky with upturns from other teams to go now, last night wasn't ideal but hopefully we can do the job ourselves....or squeeze accross the line in excruciating pain, one or the other. Exciting times.

  • I’m with the @glasshalfempty view when it comes to Wycombe. Don’t know why it is (and I’m the opposite with everything else) but a win or draw (or sometimes even just a battling performance) when I’m expecting us to lose is more fulfilling in some ways than a win or draw if I expect us to win. And losing when I think we’ll win is just depressing.

  • A point on Saturday to leave us on 51 mathematically confirms survival. If that happens, Wimbledon won't be able to catch us. Scunthorpe and Plymouth can't both reach 51 points as they play each other on the last day. Already too late for Bradford and Walsall.

  • Oops, didn't read far back enough. But yes, let's just go and get that point (or better)!

  • I don’t think it’s out of the question for Bradford to get a draw at Scunthorpe, and Accrington to beat Plymouth wouldn’t be a surprise. If those two results come in then we’re safe regardless of the result on Saturday. Mind, a point would still be nice!

  • Beat Wimbledon, stay up gloriously, and put them down as a punishment for all their goon fans, and general horrible demeanour.
    Plus not having to go to their dreadful ground which has the worst view bar none in the football league.

    People talk about Luton, but if you're under 6ft at Wimbledon, and don't get there by 1.30 you'll struggle!

  • @Malone said:
    Beat Wimbledon, stay up gloriously, and put them down as a punishment for all their goon fans, and general horrible demeanour.
    Plus not having to go to their dreadful ground which has the worst view bar none in the football league.

    People talk about Luton, but if you're under 6ft at Wimbledon, and don't get there by 1.30 you'll struggle!

    Bloody right. Should by rights like them as an honestly rejuvenated fan-owned club, but they're a horrible bunch. Would absolutely love it if a Beast goal sent them down.

  • That'd be too poetic!

    Even better if he then celebrated right in the face of some of our goon squad, taunting them with "not good enough for league 1 is it?"

  • Am I the only one looking at the league table and seeing the points gap earnt on Saturday doesn't look quite so big today?

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